{"id":43178,"date":"2024-10-02T13:37:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T11:37:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parm.com\/?p=43178"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:29:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:29:47","slug":"better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Better understand risks, manage uncertainties and make informed decisions with the help of Monte Carlo simulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_section et_pb_section_0  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_section_regular et_block_section\" >\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_0  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_0  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_0  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><p>Project Management ABC: M for Monte Carlo Simulation<\/p>\n<h1>Better understand risks, manage uncertainties, and make informed decisions with the help of Monte Carlo simulation<\/h1><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_1  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_1  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_code et_pb_code_0\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_code_inner\"><div class=\"shariff shariff-align-left shariff-widget-align-left\" style=\"display:none\"><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; 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background-color:#126567; color:#fff\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 32\"><path fill=\"#126567\" d=\"M10.7 11.9q-0.2 0.3-4.6 8.2-0.5 0.8-1.2 0.8h-4.3q-0.4 0-0.5-0.3t0-0.6l4.5-8q0 0 0 0l-2.9-5q-0.2-0.4 0-0.7 0.2-0.3 0.5-0.3h4.3q0.7 0 1.2 0.8zM25.1 0.4q0.2 0.3 0 0.7l-9.4 16.7 6 11q0.2 0.4 0 0.6-0.2 0.3-0.6 0.3h-4.3q-0.7 0-1.2-0.8l-6-11.1q0.3-0.6 9.5-16.8 0.4-0.8 1.2-0.8h4.3q0.4 0 0.5 0.3z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"shariff-button mailto shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#a8a8a8\"><a href=\"mailto:?body=&subject=\" title=\"Per E-Mail versenden\" aria-label=\"Per E-Mail versenden\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#999; color:#fff\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\"><path fill=\"#999\" d=\"M32 12.7v14.2q0 1.2-0.8 2t-2 0.9h-26.3q-1.2 0-2-0.9t-0.8-2v-14.2q0.8 0.9 1.8 1.6 6.5 4.4 8.9 6.1 1 0.8 1.6 1.2t1.7 0.9 2 0.4h0.1q0.9 0 2-0.4t1.7-0.9 1.6-1.2q3-2.2 8.9-6.1 1-0.7 1.8-1.6zM32 7.4q0 1.4-0.9 2.7t-2.2 2.2q-6.7 4.7-8.4 5.8-0.2 0.1-0.7 0.5t-1 0.7-0.9 0.6-1.1 0.5-0.9 0.2h-0.1q-0.4 0-0.9-0.2t-1.1-0.5-0.9-0.6-1-0.7-0.7-0.5q-1.6-1.1-4.7-3.2t-3.6-2.6q-1.1-0.7-2.1-2t-1-2.5q0-1.4 0.7-2.3t2.1-0.9h26.3q1.2 0 2 0.8t0.9 2z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_2  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_2  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_image et_pb_image_0\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"et_pb_image_wrap \"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2500\" height=\"1313\" src=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo_EN.jpg\" alt=\"Better Understand Risks, Manage Uncertainties, and Make Informed Decisions Using Monte Carlo Simulation\" title=\"Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo_EN.jpg 2500w, https:\/\/parm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo_EN-1280x672.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/parm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo_EN-980x515.jpg 980w, https:\/\/parm.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Post_PM-ABC_Monte-Carlo_EN-480x252.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) and (max-width: 1280px) 1280px, (min-width: 1281px) 2500px, 100vw\" class=\"wp-image-43199\" \/><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_3 et_pb_equal_columns  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_3  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_1  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><p>Monte Carlo simulation helps project managers better understand uncertainties and risks and make informed decisions. This method is based on the use of probability distributions and allows for the simulation of various scenarios to analyze the probability of different project outcomes. In this article, we\u2019ll take a look at how Monte Carlo simulation works, what benefits it offers, and how it can be applied in practice to manage projects more efficiently.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_4  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_4  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_2  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_88 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#What_is_the_Monte_Carlo_simulation\" >What is the Monte Carlo simulation?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#How_the_Monte_Carlo_simulation_works\" >How the Monte Carlo simulation works<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#Application_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation_in_project_management\" >Application of Monte Carlo simulation in project management<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#Advantages_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation\" >Advantages of Monte Carlo simulation<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#The_challenges_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation\" >The challenges of Monte Carlo simulation<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_the_Monte_Carlo_simulation\"><\/span>What is the Monte Carlo simulation?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical method used to analyze uncertainties in models by means of random sampling. In this process, random values are repeatedly generated within defined probability distributions for specific variables in order to simulate a wide range of possible outcomes. By analyzing these simulated results, it is then possible to determine how likely the various outcomes are, even when there are numerous uncertainties. In project management, for example, potential project outcomes are simulated using variables such as time, cost, or risk. This method is therefore particularly useful in situations where there are many unknowns or variables whose exact values are difficult to predict.  <br \/>The Monte Carlo simulation was developed in the 1940s to solve complex problems in nuclear research. In particular, the Hungarian-American scientist Stanislaw Ulam and the American physicist John von Neumann made significant contributions to the development of the method while working on the Manhattan Project, a research project aimed at developing the atomic bomb. The name \u201cMonte Carlo\u201d is derived from the famous casino in the Principality of Monaco, as the method uses random processes similar to those in games of chance to simulate results.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_3  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_the_Monte_Carlo_simulation_works\"><\/span>How the Monte Carlo simulation works<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>First, realistic ranges or probabilities are established for the uncertain variables (e.g., project duration, costs). This means that for each uncertain variable, there should be at least one estimate of the best-case, worst-case, and most likely values. For example, the duration of a task could range from 5 to 10 days, with the most likely duration being 7 days. In addition, it is necessary to determine which probability distribution is appropriate for each variable. For example, the probability may follow the normal distribution of the Gaussian bell curve. This means that most values lie close to the average (mean), and the values become less likely the further one moves away from the mean. However, especially if there is no prior assumption about which values are more likely, a uniform distribution can also be defined, which means that every value within the specified range is equally likely. <br \/>Subsequently, the Monte Carlo simulation uses random processes to generate many different combinations of these variables in order to create various scenarios and obtain a good distribution of results. So instead of having a single estimate, the method generates hundreds or thousands of possible outcomes. This means that after the simulation, you obtain a distribution of possible outcomes. In project management, for example, this could be a list of project durations showing how long a project might take under various conditions. When presented graphically, you can clearly see how often a specific outcome occurs. For example, in the example mentioned above, the duration of the task could be seven days in 30 percent of cases. These results can then be interpreted and used as a basis for decision-making and for mitigating risks.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_4  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Application_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation_in_project_management\"><\/span>Application of Monte Carlo simulation in project management<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In project management, Monte Carlo simulation is used to better manage uncertainties in the planning and execution of projects. Since many projects involve unpredictable factors such as time, costs, and resources, this method helps assess risks and make informed decisions. For example, in the following areas:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Scheduling:<\/strong> A project consists of many tasks whose exact duration is difficult to predict. Monte Carlo simulation helps account for these uncertainties by estimating the shortest, longest, and most likely time frames for each task. By simulating many possible schedules, you can determine how likely it is that the project will be completed within a specific timeframe. This enables project managers to determine buffer times and set realistic deadlines.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cost Management:<\/strong> Similar to scheduling, costs can also be difficult to predict. Monte Carlo simulation helps simulate various cost scenarios by capturing different possible costs for each cost element (materials, labor, etc.). The simulation provides a better understanding of the project\u2019s total costs and enables informed budget decisions. For example, it allows you to estimate the likelihood of exceeding a specific budget.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Risk Management:<\/strong> Risks are present in every project, but Monte Carlo simulation can be used to better assess their impact. If certain risks materialize, the simulation can show how they might affect the project timeline, costs, or quality. This enables a more precise assessment of the risks and their potential consequences. Project managers can thus take steps to minimize these risks and understand which risk management strategies are most effective.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_5  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Advantages_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation\"><\/span>Advantages of Monte Carlo simulation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A Better Understanding of Uncertainties: Monte Carlo simulation makes it easy to account for uncertainties in projects, as the simulation generates a range of possible outcomes along with their probabilities of occurrence. This helps identify potential problems early on.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Sound decision-making:<\/strong> Based on the scenarios and probabilities, informed decisions can be made to achieve the best possible project outcome.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Transparency and Communication:<\/strong> Communication with all stakeholders is also made easier, especially when it comes to visualizing complex relationships. Charts and probability distributions make it easier to understand risks, forecasts, and decisions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Flexibility in Different Scenarios:<\/strong> Running through different scenarios helps to develop alternative strategies and action plans\u2014even before the project begins. This ensures that project managers are always on the safe side during the project\u2019s implementation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Improved Risk Management:<\/strong> The simulation also helps clearly illustrate the probabilities and impacts of potential risks. This allows for better assessment of the risks and the implementation of precautionary measures.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_6  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_challenges_of_Monte_Carlo_simulation\"><\/span>The challenges of Monte Carlo simulation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Complexity of the method:<\/strong> Monte Carlo simulation is quite complex and therefore not necessarily easy to apply. For example, the simulation requires a good understanding of probabilities and distributions, as well as estimates that are as accurate as possible, but not every project team has the necessary experts for this.  <\/li>\n<li><strong>Dependence on Accurate Data:<\/strong> The quality of the simulation depends heavily on the input data. Inaccurate estimates or incorrect assumptions about probability distributions lead to erroneous results. It is therefore important to use realistic and well-founded data, which often proves difficult in practice.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Difficulty in Interpretation:<\/strong> Even though the simulation provides a great deal of useful information, it can be challenging to interpret and communicate the results correctly. The presentation of probabilities and risks must be clearly explained so that all stakeholders can understand them and make appropriate decisions based on them.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Time and Resource Requirements:<\/strong> Although this method provides valuable information, it is often time-consuming. Collecting the necessary data, running the simulation, and analyzing the results require additional time and resources, which poses a challenge in many projects.<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_5  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_5  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_7  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Monte Carlo simulation offers clear advantages and can help reduce uncertainties and risks, particularly in large, complex projects. It enables more precise, data-driven planning and improves decision-making. However, the potential benefits should be weighed against the significant effort involved and the challenges, such as complexity and the need for precise data.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_6  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column et_pb_column_6  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_8  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><p>Therefore, for many projects, other methods of reducing uncertainty are sufficient. Effective time and cost planning, resource management, risk management, and project monitoring during the planning and implementation phases make it possible to identify uncertainties early on and make well-informed decisions. In addition, flexible dashboard and reporting features\u2014such as those offered by the project management software myPARM ProjectManagement\u2014help manage projects successfully and efficiently\u2014without the need for complex simulations.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column et_pb_column_7  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_9  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><p>Find out more about the myPARM project and portfolio management software:<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_button_module_wrapper et_pb_button_0_wrapper et_pb_button_alignment_left et_pb_module \">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"et_pb_button et_d4_element et_pb_button_0 et_pb_bg_layout_light et_block_module\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/myparm\/\">Further information about myPARM<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_text et_pb_text_10  et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_bg_layout_light\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_text_inner\"><p>Would you like to get to know myPARM in a demo? Then make an appointment with us right away!<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_pb_button_module_wrapper et_pb_button_1_wrapper et_pb_button_alignment_left et_pb_module \">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"et_pb_button et_d4_element et_pb_button_1 et_pb_bg_layout_light et_block_module\" href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/parmag\/myparm-webdemo\" target=\"_blank\">MAKE AN APPOINTMENT<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_7  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_8  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_code et_pb_code_1\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_code_inner\"><div class=\"shariff shariff-align-left shariff-widget-align-left\" style=\"display:none\"><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-round orientation-horizontal buttonsize-medium\"><li class=\"shariff-button facebook shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#4273c8\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=\" title=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Facebook teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#3b5998; color:#fff\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 18 32\"><path fill=\"#3b5998\" d=\"M17.1 0.2v4.7h-2.8q-1.5 0-2.1 0.6t-0.5 1.9v3.4h5.2l-0.7 5.3h-4.5v13.6h-5.5v-13.6h-4.5v-5.3h4.5v-3.9q0-3.3 1.9-5.2t5-1.8q2.6 0 4.1 0.2z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"shariff-button linkedin shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#1488bf\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/sharing\/share-offsite\/?url=\" title=\"Bei LinkedIn teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei LinkedIn teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#0077b5; color:#fff\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 27 32\"><path fill=\"#0077b5\" d=\"M6.2 11.2v17.7h-5.9v-17.7h5.9zM6.6 5.7q0 1.3-0.9 2.2t-2.4 0.9h0q-1.5 0-2.4-0.9t-0.9-2.2 0.9-2.2 2.4-0.9 2.4 0.9 0.9 2.2zM27.4 18.7v10.1h-5.9v-9.5q0-1.9-0.7-2.9t-2.3-1.1q-1.1 0-1.9 0.6t-1.2 1.5q-0.2 0.5-0.2 1.4v9.9h-5.9q0-7.1 0-11.6t0-5.3l0-0.9h5.9v2.6h0q0.4-0.6 0.7-1t1-0.9 1.6-0.8 2-0.3q3 0 4.9 2t1.9 6z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"shariff-button xing shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#29888a\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.xing.com\/spi\/shares\/new?url=\" title=\"Bei XING teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei XING teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#126567; color:#fff\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 32\"><path fill=\"#126567\" d=\"M10.7 11.9q-0.2 0.3-4.6 8.2-0.5 0.8-1.2 0.8h-4.3q-0.4 0-0.5-0.3t0-0.6l4.5-8q0 0 0 0l-2.9-5q-0.2-0.4 0-0.7 0.2-0.3 0.5-0.3h4.3q0.7 0 1.2 0.8zM25.1 0.4q0.2 0.3 0 0.7l-9.4 16.7 6 11q0.2 0.4 0 0.6-0.2 0.3-0.6 0.3h-4.3q-0.7 0-1.2-0.8l-6-11.1q0.3-0.6 9.5-16.8 0.4-0.8 1.2-0.8h4.3q0.4 0 0.5 0.3z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"shariff-button mailto shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#a8a8a8\"><a href=\"mailto:?body=&subject=\" title=\"Per E-Mail versenden\" aria-label=\"Per E-Mail versenden\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#999; color:#fff\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 32 32\"><path fill=\"#999\" d=\"M32 12.7v14.2q0 1.2-0.8 2t-2 0.9h-26.3q-1.2 0-2-0.9t-0.8-2v-14.2q0.8 0.9 1.8 1.6 6.5 4.4 8.9 6.1 1 0.8 1.6 1.2t1.7 0.9 2 0.4h0.1q0.9 0 2-0.4t1.7-0.9 1.6-1.2q3-2.2 8.9-6.1 1-0.7 1.8-1.6zM32 7.4q0 1.4-0.9 2.7t-2.2 2.2q-6.7 4.7-8.4 5.8-0.2 0.1-0.7 0.5t-1 0.7-0.9 0.6-1.1 0.5-0.9 0.2h-0.1q-0.4 0-0.9-0.2t-1.1-0.5-0.9-0.6-1-0.7-0.7-0.5q-1.6-1.1-4.7-3.2t-3.6-2.6q-1.1-0.7-2.1-2t-1-2.5q0-1.4 0.7-2.3t2.1-0.9h26.3q1.2 0 2 0.8t0.9 2z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_section et_pb_section_1  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_section_regular et_block_section\" >\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_row et_pb_row_8  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et_block_row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_d4_element et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column et_pb_column_9  et_pb_css_mix_blend_mode et-last-child et_block_column\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_module et_d4_element et_pb_code et_pb_code_2\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"et_pb_code_inner\"><!-- Begin Sendinblue Form -->\n<!-- START - We recommend to place the below code in head tag of your website html -->\n<style>\n  @font-face {\n    font-display: block;\n    font-family: Roboto;\n    src: url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/normal\/normal\/7529907e9eaf8ebb5220c5f9850e3811.woff2) format(\"woff2\"), url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/normal\/normal\/25c678feafdc175a70922a116c9be3e7.woff) format(\"woff\")\n  }\n\n  @font-face {\n    font-display: fallback;\n    font-family: Roboto;\n    font-weight: 600;\n    src: url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/medium\/normal\/6e9caeeafb1f3491be3e32744bc30440.woff2) format(\"woff2\"), url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/medium\/normal\/71501f0d8d5aa95960f6475d5487d4c2.woff) format(\"woff\")\n  }\n\n  @font-face {\n    font-display: fallback;\n    font-family: Roboto;\n    font-weight: 700;\n    src: url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/bold\/normal\/3ef7cf158f310cf752d5ad08cd0e7e60.woff2) format(\"woff2\"), url(https:\/\/assets.sendinblue.com\/font\/Roboto\/Latin\/bold\/normal\/ece3a1d82f18b60bcce0211725c476aa.woff) format(\"woff\")\n  }\n\n  #sib-container input:-ms-input-placeholder {\n    text-align: left;\n    font-family: \"Helvetica\", sans-serif;\n    color: #c0ccda;\n  }\n\n  #sib-container input::placeholder {\n    text-align: left;\n    font-family: \"Helvetica\", sans-serif;\n    color: #c0ccda;\n  }\n\n  #sib-container textarea::placeholder {\n    text-align: left;\n    font-family: \"Helvetica\", sans-serif;\n    color: #c0ccda;\n  }\n<\/style>\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/sibforms.com\/forms\/end-form\/build\/sib-styles.css\">\n<!-- END - We recommend to place the above code in head tag of your website html -->\n\n<!-- START - We recommend to place the below code where you want the form in your website html -->\n<div class=\"sib-form\" style=\"text-align: center;         background-color: transparent;                                  \">\n  <div id=\"sib-form-container\" class=\"sib-form-container\">\n    <div id=\"error-message\" class=\"sib-form-message-panel\" style=\"font-size:16px; text-align:left; font-family:\" helvetica=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" color:=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-radius:3px=\"\" border-color:=\"\">\n      <div class=\"sib-form-message-panel__text sib-form-message-panel__text--center\">\n        <svg viewbox=\"0 0 512 512\" class=\"sib-icon sib-notification__icon\">\n          <path d=\"M256 40c118.621 0 216 96.075 216 216 0 119.291-96.61 216-216 216-119.244 0-216-96.562-216-216 0-119.203 96.602-216 216-216m0-32C119.043 8 8 119.083 8 256c0 136.997 111.043 248 248 248s248-111.003 248-248C504 119.083 392.957 8 256 8zm-11.49 120h22.979c6.823 0 12.274 5.682 11.99 12.5l-7 168c-.268 6.428-5.556 11.5-11.99 11.5h-8.979c-6.433 0-11.722-5.073-11.99-11.5l-7-168c-.283-6.818 5.167-12.5 11.99-12.5zM256 340c-15.464 0-28 12.536-28 28s12.536 28 28 28 28-12.536 28-28-12.536-28-28-28z\"><\/path>\n        <\/svg>\n        <span class=\"sib-form-message-panel__inner-text\">\n Ihre Anmeldung konnte nicht gespeichert werden. 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Bitte sehen Sie in Ihr Postfach und best\u00e4tigen Sie Ihre Anmeldung. Sollte keine Nachricht ankommen, sehen Sie bitte in Ihren Spam-Ordner. Vielen Dank!\n                      <\/span>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div><\/div>\n    <div id=\"sib-container\" class=\"sib-container--large sib-container--vertical\" style=\"text-align:center; background-color:rgba(27,62,144,1); max-width:1080px; border-radius:3px; border-width:0px; border-color:#C0CCD9; border-style:solid;\">\n      <form id=\"sib-form\" method=\"POST\" action=\"https:\/\/272a17fd.sibforms.com\/serve\/MUIEAOo1vFGWS7d0cvncbnGo6ZIm0MV83UA-ApqLz0GJgUd38j-GsNKlhCPZ1kVJVEGx5yChU7xjEUZEVAhHli4H01njDJsY0TOLof7HNzi7lZJvWMes1-Je1GVxivY9c8XrMzqbTrnQ9SuHnjhsRe5vXL8U5STdopGqk00vm6RWgZiOpVABZMg1kUY8-KjUWzt-Tpk5-zC9XQ2j\" data-type=\"subscription\">\n        <div style=\"padding: 8px 0;\">\n          <div class=\"sib-form-block\" style=\"font-size:32px; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-family:\" helvetica=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" color:=\"\" background-color:transparent=\"\">\n            Newsletter\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        <div style=\"padding: 8px 0;\">\n          <div class=\"sib-form-block\" style=\"font-size:16px; text-align:left; font-family:\" helvetica=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" color:=\"\" background-color:transparent=\"\">\n            <div class=\"sib-text-form-block\">\n              Subscribe to our monthly newsletter and be informed about Parm AG products, innovations, trends in project management as well as offers and events.\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        <div style=\"padding: 8px 0;\">\n          <div class=\"sib-input sib-form-block\">\n            <div class=\"form__entry entry_block\">\n              <div class=\"form__label-row \">\n\n                <div class=\"entry__field\">\n                  <input class=\"input\" type=\"text\" id=\"EMAIL\" name=\"EMAIL\" autocomplete=\"off\" placeholder=\"EMAIL\" data-required=\"true\" required=\"\">\n                <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n\n              <label class=\"entry__error entry__error--primary\" style=\"font-size:16px; text-align:left; font-family:\" helvetica=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" color:=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-radius:3px=\"\" border-color:=\"\">\n              <\/label>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        <div style=\"padding: 8px 0;\">\n          <div class=\"sib-optin sib-form-block\" data-required=\"true\">\n            <div class=\"form__entry entry_mcq\">\n              <div class=\"form__label-row \">\n                <div class=\"entry__choice\">\n                  <label>\n                    <input type=\"checkbox\" class=\"input_replaced\" value=\"1\" id=\"OPT_IN\" name=\"OPT_IN\" required=\"\">\n                    <span class=\"checkbox checkbox_tick_positive\"><\/span><span style=\"font-size:14px; text-align:left; font-family:\" helvetica=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" color:=\"\" background-color:transparent=\"\">I agree to the newsletter being tailored to my individual interests. 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Eine Methode daf\u00fcr ist die Monte-Carlo-Simulation, die auf Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen basiert und verschiedene Szenarien simuliert. Sie hilft bei der Planung von Zeit, Kosten und Risiken \u2013 besonders in grossen, komplexen Projekten.<br \/>\nNeugierig? Wir erkl\u00e4ren, wie die Monte-Carlo-Simulation funktioniert, ihre Vorteile , Herausforderungen und Alternativen. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[54,1200],"class_list":["post-43178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-project-management","tag-project-management","tag-projektmanagement-abc-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Better understand risks, manage uncertainties and make informed decisions with the help of Monte Carlo simulation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Monte Carlo simulation can be used to simulate uncertain scenarios and determine the probability of different project outcomes.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/parm.com\/en\/better-understand-risks-manage-uncertainties-and-make-informed-decisions-with-the-help-of-monte-carlo-simulation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Better understand risks, manage uncertainties and make informed decisions with the help of Monte Carlo simulation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How can we better understand uncertainties and risks in projects and make well-informed decisions? One method for doing this is Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on probability distributions and simulates various scenarios. It helps with planning time, costs, and risks\u2014especially in large, complex projects. Curious? 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One method for doing this is Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on probability distributions and simulates various scenarios. It helps with planning time, costs, and risks\u2014especially in large, complex projects. Curious? 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